The Premier League delivers a packed fixture list from 5 February to 10 February, featuring ten matches that will test Last Man Standing survivors heading into the business end of the season. With title contenders facing tricky tests and mid-table sides jostling for position, this weekend demands careful analysis before committing your pick.
Our statistical model highlights three standout survival candidates this weekend:
- Arsenal vs Sunderland (66.2% win probability): Home form meets attacking quality
- Chelsea at Wolves (66.1% win probability): Blues riding momentum into tough away fixture
- Manchester United vs Tottenham (57.7% win probability): Red Devils' home advantage crucial
Arsenal
Manchester United
Chelsea
Manchester United Host Tottenham in Saturday Showdown
Manchester United welcome Tottenham to Old Trafford on 7 February in the weekend's marquee fixture. The model favours United with a 57.7% win probability, backed by impressive home form that has delivered 18 points from their last 10 matches at home. Bruno Fernandes and company have found their rhythm in front of their own supporters, averaging 0.6 goals per match better than their away performances.
Tottenham arrive in mixed form, collecting just seven points from their last ten overall matches. More concerning for Spurs fans is their recent away record, which shows just three wins from ten on the road. The head-to-head history slightly favours Tottenham, but United's recent five-match home run suggests they've turned a corner after early season struggles.
For Last Man Standing purposes, this fixture sits in the reliable-but-not-spectacular category. At 57.7%, United offer decent survival odds without being a slam dunk. The congestion factor is minimal for both sides, each enjoying five days of rest, which should produce an open, quality contest.
Manchester United
Arsenal Face Sunderland with Top Pick Credentials
Arsenal host Sunderland on Saturday with the weekend's highest win probability at 66.2%. The Gunners have been formidable at home, winning seven of their last ten and conceding just eight goals across that stretch. Their attacking output has been consistent, averaging 1.3 goals better than opponents over their home run.
Sunderland arrive as clear underdogs, managing just three wins from ten overall matches and showing vulnerability on the road. Their away form reveals only one win from ten, though they've kept four clean sheets in that spell through defensive organisation. The single previous meeting this season ended in a 2-2 draw, but that result feels anomalous against the broader form picture.
The model accounts for Arsenal's strong home form modifier (1.1) and Sunderland's congestion disadvantage with just four days rest. For Last Man Standing players, Arsenal represent the safest pick this weekend. The lookahead context complicates matters, however.
Brentford
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Wolves
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Tottenham
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Chelsea Travel to Wolves with Away Day Questions
Chelsea make the trip to Molineux on Saturday as heavy favourites despite the away fixture. The model gives them a 66.1% win probability, reflecting their excellent recent form: 18 points from ten away matches and 22 goals scored on the road. Their attacking output has been exceptional, with 0.9 goals per match better than opponents.
Wolves present a struggling opponent, winning just two of their last ten home matches and showing clear defensive fragility. They've conceded 16 goals in that home run and failed to score in five matches. The head-to-head record heavily favours Chelsea, who have won four of the last seven meetings including a 6-2 demolition earlier this season.
The statistical case for Chelsea is strong, yet Last Man Standing survivors should consider their upcoming schedule. After this weekend, Chelsea face Leeds and Burnley before a difficult trip to Arsenal. That sequence offers multiple strong pick opportunities, making this weekend potentially the right moment to use them.
Model Confidence and Market Alignment
This weekend presents an unusual scenario where our model and the market show broad alignment across most fixtures. The largest divergence appears in the Newcastle vs Brentford fixture, where our model (43.1% home win) is slightly more pessimistic on Newcastle than the market (50.0%). This reflects Brentford's excellent overall form, which has produced 20 points from ten matches with just two defeats.
The Liverpool vs Manchester City fixture on Sunday showcases the opposite pattern. Our model rates this almost even, with City slight favourites at 44.3% versus Liverpool's 33.2%. The market, however, leans more strongly toward Liverpool at home (40.4%). Recent history supports Liverpool's home advantage, with three wins from the last seven meetings at Anfield.
These model-market differences aren't dramatic enough to warrant deviating from form-based analysis. What they reveal instead is a weekend without obvious trap games or overlooked opportunities. The straightforward fixtures are genuinely straightforward.
Form Trends That Challenge Expectations
Leeds United open the weekend on Friday hosting Nottingham Forest with a 42.1% win probability according to our model. That modest figure deserves scrutiny given Leeds' recent home form: four wins from ten home matches and 18 goals scored. Forest's away form has been solid enough with four wins from ten, but their congestion disadvantage (five days rest versus Leeds' six) and defensive record (15 conceded away) suggest Leeds are slightly underrated here.
Brighton host Crystal Palace on Sunday in a fixture that highlights the importance of venue. Brighton's 52.3% win probability is built on decent home form, but Palace's away record tells a concerning story: zero wins from ten matches and 1.3 goals worse off on average. This represents one of the weekend's clearest form mismatches, yet the probability remains modest due to Palace's occasional defensive solidity.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa on Saturday offers another counter-intuitive assessment. Villa are favourites at 43.0% despite Bournemouth's respectable home record. Villa's excellent overall form (19 points from ten matches, 0.9 goals better than opponents) overcomes the home advantage factor, suggesting they're value regardless of venue.
Looking Ahead Beyond This Weekend
For Last Man Standing strategy, understanding the upcoming fixture sequence matters as much as this weekend's probabilities. Manchester United's lookahead reveals a challenging month ahead: away trips to West Ham, Everton, and Newcastle interspersed with home matches against lower-ranked opposition. Their 57.7% probability this weekend might represent their strongest opportunity in the next six fixtures.
Chelsea's schedule presents the opposite scenario. After Wolves, they host Leeds and Burnley with win probabilities exceeding 67% and 78% respectively. This run suggests Chelsea might be worth saving unless you're in desperate survival mode. The trade-off is their longer-term schedule includes away trips to Arsenal and Aston Villa where probabilities dip below 35%.
Arsenal's upcoming fixtures mirror Chelsea's advantage. Six consecutive matches with win probabilities ranging from 54% to 76% offer Last Man Standing players multiple strong options. Using Arsenal this weekend against Sunderland remains sensible, but their schedule flexibility means survivors can potentially afford to save them for a tighter spot.
Survival Strategy for the Weekend
Last Man Standing members navigating this fixture list face a straightforward calculation: Arsenal and Chelsea offer the highest win probabilities at approximately 66%, with Manchester United a tier below at 57.7%. The decision hinges less on this weekend's probabilities and more on future scheduling.
If you've already used Arsenal or Chelsea in previous rounds, Manchester United becomes the default quality option. Their home advantage is genuine, and Tottenham's away struggles are well-documented. Brighton hosting Palace offers an alternative at 52.3%, though that probability feels marginal for survival purposes.
The safest path remains Arsenal or Chelsea, with Arsenal's home fixture offering fractionally better odds and fewer variables. For members planning multiple weeks ahead, Chelsea at Wolves might be the smarter sacrifice, preserving Arsenal for a future crisis week where their home fortress could prove essential.
The Liverpool vs Manchester City fixture on Sunday tempts as a potential differential pick, but at 44.3% for the away side and 33.2% for the home team, neither option carries survival-level confidence. This match belongs on your viewing schedule, not your survival slip.